moody's probability of default table 2021
We employed a forward intensity approach to predict the multi-period defaults of Chinese-listed firms during the period 2001-2019 on a monthly basis. 4 Moody's Rating Methodology PDR Definition and Proposed Methodology Like Moody's long-term security ratings, corporate family ra tings (CFRs) are opinions about expected credit loss rates, i.e., the family's likelihood of default times its estimated average loss given default (LGD) over a blend of time horizons. (1), Illinois (9), Poland Moodys SF Japan K.K. (1), Ohio Dial the AT&T Direct Dial Access code for. (2), Saint Lucia We assigned nearly 1,800 ESG Credit Impact Scores to help investors understand the impact of ESG factors on credit risk, as well as new Carbon Transition Assessments for nearly 400 issuers across the most exposed sectors.We launched Moodys ESG Score Predictor, which provides ESG estimates, carbon emissions footprint, and transition and physical risk factors for over 140 million companies, supporting customers needs around sustainable sourcing and supply chains.Ahead of COP26, we launched the Moodys on Climate Campaign which generated close to 10 million content impressions, illustrating the markets strong interest in Moodys ESG insights.In September, we closed on our acquisition of RMS, a leading risk analytics business serving the global insurance industry.This enables us both to provide a more comprehensive suite of offerings to our life, property and casualty (P&C) and reinsurance customers and to leverage RMS world-class models and expertise in weather, climate and disaster risk in providing risk solutions beyond insurance.We advanced our screening and onboarding offerings, aided by several key acquisitions.We are helping our customers digitize and automate the Know Your Customer (KYC) process, providing a streamlined workflow with proprietary company, ownership, and people data. This, combined with Moodys experienced leadership and its talented and diverse workforce, will enable continued generation of enduring value for stockholders and other important stakeholders. (7), Vietnam (1), Alaska Global speculative-grade corporate default rate was unchanged in November. (10), Cocos (Keeling) Islands (6), France She previously held a variety of communications positions at American Express and was a journalist for ABC News, where she earned an Emmy award. MOODYS CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND MOODYS CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. (2), Luxembourg Mr. Fauber joined Moodys in 2005 and has held multiple leadership roles at Moodys. The Moody's Analytics PD is an aggregation of all the sources of credit risk assessable for a given borrower. Using Moody's Analytics probability of default models, we see credit deterioration across firms of all sizes and industries. Lead Independent Director Moodys Corporation Retired Chief Executive Officer Becton DickinsonDirector since April 2018Vincent A. Forlenza, age 68, is the Lead Independent Director, Chairman of the Governance & Nominating Committee, and a member of the Audit, Compensation & Human Resources and Executive Committees of the Board of Directors. (2), Pakistan To the extent permitted by law, MOODYS and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect, special, consequential, or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information, even if MOODYS or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages, including but not limited to: (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYS.To the extent permitted by law, MOODYS and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity, including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud, willful misconduct or any other type of liability that, for the avoidance of doubt, by law cannot be excluded) on the part of, or any contingency within or beyond the control of, MOODYS or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers, arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information.NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING, ASSESSMENT, OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.Moodys Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Corporation (MCO), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodys Investors Service, Inc. have, prior to assignment of any credit rating, agreed to pay to Moodys Investors Service, Inc. for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,000 to approximately $5,000,000. (2), Singapore While pandemic related risks to the economy remain present, we expect that the combination of vaccinations and policy support measures will support the economic recovery over the course of 2021, and the number of defaults this year will be lower than last year. 2023 Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moodys Analytics, Inc. and/or their affiliates and licensors. President, Moody's Investors Service Mr. West has served as President of Moodys Investors Service, Inc. since November 2019. She is responsible for the supervision of global regulatory and compliance interactions, the management of regulatory examinations and all centralized compliance functions. Moody's Investors Service analysts use this data to produce the Annual Default Study, read by market participants globally. (6), Puerto Rico (2), Guyana (2), Default Trends Global December 2022 Default Report - Excel Data, Default Trends Global: December 2022 Default Report, Structured Finance: November 2022 structured rating transitions, Default Trends Global: Compendium of 2021 corporate defaults, Default Trends - Latin America & Caribbean: Latin American corporate default rate will rise gradually in 2023 as growth stalls, Default Trends Global November 2022 Default Report - Excel Data, Structured Finance - Global : October 2022 structured rating transitions (Jan 2009 - October 2022) - Excel supplement, Structured Finance - Global : October 2022 structured rating transitions (Jan 1993 - October 2022) - Excel supplement, Structured Finance: October 2022 structured rating transitions. (6), Syria If this isn't what you are looking for, you can, Moody's Default and Ratings Analytics team publishes Moodys default studies, ratings transitions and ratings performance studies for corporates, financial institutions, sovereign and sub-sovereign, public finance and infrastructure sectors. As I observed last year, our customers seek solutions to help them identify, measure and manage a wider range of interconnected risks. Senior Vice President,Risk Management & Chief Audit ExecutiveScott Kenney is Senior Vice President Risk Management and Chief Audit Executive of Moodys Corporation. Above all, we are inspired to help uncover meaning amid uncertainty so individuals and organizations can thrive, which drives our ambition to be the leading provider of global integrated perspectives on risk. IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER.ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODYS PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.MOODYS CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK.All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. (6), Azerbaijan (6), Djibouti David is a graduate of Rutgers University School of Business and has a New Jersey State CPA. from the University of Chicago and a B.A. In this spirit, Moodys accelerated its own net-zero commitments to 2040, advanced its science-based targets, and published its inaugural Stakeholder Sustainability Report.Moodys has continued to strengthen the firms culture of inclusion, built on respect, diversity and openness. The trailing 12-month global speculative grade corporate default rate held steady at 2.6%. (2), Cambodia Her various executive roles at Cisco Systems, Inc. allow her to bring extensive leadership experience and a strong background in information technology and business operations to the Board. From September 2009 to October 2012, Mr. Serafin served as General Manager at Tellme Networks, Inc., a telephone-based applications provider, following its acquisition by Microsoft Corporation. 12/31/2021: 21.08: 28.68: 11/30/2022: 3.52-13.12: 12/31/2022-.51-18.13: (6), Papua New Guinea So far in the fourth quarter there have been nine defaults, four based in China as Chinese real estate developers continue to face funding challenges (see "Asia-Pacific Credit Outlook 2022 China Decelerates, Fed . (2), Panama Her experience as the Chairman of the Financial Accounting Standards Board, executive at a major bank and auditor for a major accounting firm allows her to bring to the Board significant knowledge of global accounting and financial reporting matters in addition to regulatory and senior management experience. (1), Missouri Ms. Alsop holds a B.A. (53), U.S. Public Finance The Company is proud to have met its Supplier Diversity Initiative pledge to increase the representation of women-owned businesses in its supply chain, and of the commitment made in 2021 to materially increase the population of women, and U.S. Black and Hispanic / Latino leaders across the company by 2025. Ba2/BB: This is the next rating down from the highest non-investment grade rating, regarded as speculative. AND/OR ITS AFFILIATES. While 2021 was a year of challenges, it was also full of opportunities to invest and deliver for our customers. (1), Oregon (MJKK) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moodys Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Product development work and acquisitions complemented and enhanced investments in Moodys core credit ratings and research offerings, data and analytic capabilities, and will help ensure the continued relevance and value of these offerings to customers.The acquisition of RMS established Moodys as a leader in insurance and data analytics and brought valuable new expertise in modeling extreme weather and climate risk, as well as other catastrophes. (1), Minnesota reference to Moody's idealized loss and default tables (see Appendix B). (2), Kuwait (72), Funds & Asset Management (10), Eurozone He serves as a director of the Community Foundation of Brazos Valley where he served as Chairman from July 2013 to June 2014 and currently serves as the chairman of the Investment Committee.Mr. Stockholders and other stakeholders may communicate with the Board, or with a specific director or directors, by writing to: 2022 Moodys Corporation, Moodys Investors Service, Inc., Moodys Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, MOODYS). from The University of California, Berkeley in Political Economies of Industrialized Societies and earned the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. Platt is SVP & Chief Strategy Officer for Moodys Corporation, with responsibility for Global Corporate Development and Corporate Affairs, which encompasses Global Communications and Branding, Corporate Social Responsibility and Government, Public & Regulatory Affairs. Prior to this appointment, Mr. Tulenko was Executive Director of Enterprise Risk Solutions from 2013 to October 2019 and Executive Director of Sales, Customer Service and Marketing from 2008 to 2013. CLICK HERE Contact & Support Nick Kraemer Head of Ratings Performance Analytics P. + 1 (212) 438-1698 E. [email protected] (2), Romania (2), Gibraltar 2023 Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moodys Analytics, Inc. and/or their affiliates and licensors. +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City Mr. Fauber earned his B.A. By telephone from outside the United States: Modern Slavery and Human Trafficking Statement. All data is derived from the Moody'sInvestors Serviceproprietary database of issuer, default, and recovery information. (1), District of Columbia Moody's returned $116 million to its stockholders via dividend payments during the second quarter of 2021. Ms. (9), Togo (2), Ethiopia This document is intended to be provided only to wholesale clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. Risk of sponsor default: Moody's assumed a 60% decrease in the probability of default (from Moody's idealized default probability tables) implied by the B1 rating of the sponsor. in Statistics and Actuarial Science, both from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and is a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries. Providing trusted insights and standards that help decision makers act with confidence. Mr. Fauber joined the Board of Directors in October 2020 and he currently serves on the Executive Committee of the Board of Directors. Default Report. (2), Bahrain (2), Bangladesh (2), Botswana Investment-grade companies have exhibited greater stability in terms of changes in credit quality and ratings. (1), English (82), Cape Verde The last term is a measure for the probability that the firm defaults in period t + s, where t is the default probability at time t, . (MSFJ) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. (2), Cayman Islands She moved to the Commercial department in 2011, to focus on Structured Finance business development, including secondments to both the Hong Kong and New York offices.She also spent time in the Product Management Group with global responsibility for product related requests and initiatives linked to Structured Finance and investor requested products.Prior to joining Moody's, she was a Director at Lehman Brothers, specializing in Structured Finance origination and structuring. Global corporate default rate will climb as macroeconomic and credit conditions worsen, Global corporate default rate will nearly double in a year. Moody's denotes bonds rated Baa3 or higher as investment grade. He and his wife have two children. (6), Qatar (2), Bhutan Van Saun currently serves as the chief executive officer and chairman of a U.S. bank. (2), Georgia And, as our customers increasingly seek to understand and quantify the risk of a cyber attack in their organizations and across their supply chains, we made a $250 million investment in BitSight, a leading provider of cyber security risk ratings.All of these initiatives translated into impressive financial performance and continued strong returns for our stockholders. We also launched the next generation of Supply Chain Catalyst, offering our customers an enterprise-wide view of critical supply chain relationships, including factors such as financial health, sustainability and reputational risk.In response to intense need for interconnected CRE data and analytics to support lending and investing workflows, we accelerated the development of our SaaS workflow solution for CRE lenders and our portfolio monitoring solution for CRE investors. In 2020, only 2.1% of investment-grade companies fell to speculative grade despite an extremely difficult business environment. Mr. Kapusta holds a Masters Degree (LL.M.) (1), Idaho Default Trends and Rating Transitions | Moody's Default Trends and Rating Transitions This page provides a central resource for Moody's research on default risks, impairment and loss rates, rating transitions and performance, and liquidity studies. Mr. Forlenza previously served on the board of the Advanced Medical Technology Association (AdvaMed), an international medical technology trade organization.Mr. Robs deep knowledge of the business and customers needs has been invaluable in navigating through the rapidly changing global landscape.I am confident that Moodys ongoing evolution as a global integrated risk assessment business will continue to position the Company at the forefront of helping customers to operate with speed and sophistication in an increasingly complex and interconnected world. The peak baseline estimate for the default rate was lowered from February 2021's 12.1% (as of early August 2020) to March -February 2021's 11.4% (as of early September). in government and psychology from Georgetown University. Normal Convexity in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities. (8), Sovereign & Supranational Chairman & Chief Executive OfficerCitizens Financial Group, Inc.Director since March 2016 Bruce Van Saun, age 64, is a member of the Audit, Governance & Nominating and Compensation & Human Resources Committees of the Board of Directors. (6), Comoros (6), Ghana Default, Transition, and Recovery: Global Corporate Defaults Push Past 2021's Year-End Total S&P Global Ratings Ratings360 (FOR RATED ISSUERS) S&P Global Market Intelligence CreditPro View our upcoming events. Our study of company defaults globally over the last 25 years shows repeated defaults were largely due to adverse industry trends, with the pandemic and high leverage also playing a role. (4), Infrastructure Renewal and Investment As a result of holding these positions, Mr. Van Saun brings financial expertise, management experience and experience managing a business in a highly regulated industry both in the U.S. and in Europe. The Companys common stock trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol MCO. Prior to joining the Company, Ms. Sullivan served in several roles at Bank of America from 2011 to 2018, where her last position held was Managing Director and Global Banking Controller. His service as a director also contributes to his focus on corporate governance matters. His substantive expertise extends to enterprise collaboration services, artificial intelligence and user experience. Refinancing risk rises for US companies as maturities peak, interest rates increase, economy weakens. (2), Latvia 19 Dec 2022. (1), Maryland (2), Malta (6), Jordan In this new report, Moody's forecasts that the rate will peak at 7.3% in March 2021, and then decline to 4.7% by December. (6), Croatia While default risks are growing, the global speculative-grade default rate is not likely to rise sharply over the next 12 months. (2), Angola (2), Liechtenstein Mr. Fauber has also served as Head of Moodys Corporate Development. Prior to joining Moodys in 1998, Mr. West worked at Bank of America and HSBC in various credit roles. (2), Kenya Breed currently serves as the Treasurer for the Skating Club of New York. Prior to joining Moodys, Mr. Kenney was a Managing Director at Deloitte, serving as leader to several internal audit departments, external financial statement audits, Sarbanes-Oxley compliance efforts and large regulatory compliance engagements. DRA also publishes impairment and loss studies for structured finance sectors. During her tenure, the FASB established numerous accounting standards relating to financial instruments, including securitizations, derivatives and credit losses and worked with regulators and policy makers in the U.S., and in other major capital markets to develop consistent accounting standards. Please reduce your list by using the filtering tool to the left. (2), Benin (2), Financial stability risks: implications of rising corporate leverage Learn how Moody's ratings and analysis speak to the relative credit risk of debt instruments and securities across industries and asset classes around the globe. Default Report. Her experiences and expertise enhance the Boards ability to oversee the Companys global operations and effectively manage risk. From April 2009 through April 2014, he served as Senior Vice PresidentCorporate Development of Moodys Corporation. (1), Utah from St. Johns University School of Law. Prior to his work at MassMutual, Mark held a range of senior finance leadership roles at Voya Financial (formerly ING U.S.). Firstly, as seen in Panel A of Figure 1.3, the credit quality of Swedish bond issuances has been decreasing, both since 2000 but more notably since 2009 when the market began growing substantially.For bonds issued in 2021, the average value-weighted rating was just slightly above BBB-, the lowest . Oil & Gas, Retail and Business Services sectors were the three largest contributors to corporate defaults in 2020. (8), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) He is responsible for all aspects of tax for Moodys and manages a global team of diverse professionals. Mr. Serafin joined Qualtrics in October 2016 as Chief Operating Officer. (2), Cuba To estimate the long term country equity risk premium, I start with a default spread, which I obtain in one of two ways: (1) I use the local currency sovereign rating (from Moody's: www.moodys.com) and estimate the default spread for that rating (based upon traded country bonds) over a default free government bond rate. Previously, Mr. Hogan held the role of EMEA Regional Controller from June 2013 to September 2016; and from July 2010 to June 2013, he held various senior roles within the Finance organization. A record-high amount of debt matures in 2023-27, and the amount due in the first few years is rising. Former ChairmanFinancial Accounting Standards BoardDirector since December 2013Leslie F. Seidman, age 59, is Chairman of the Audit Committee and is a member of the Executive, Governance & Nominating and Compensation & Human Resources Committees of the Board of Directors. 23 Dec 2022. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODYS that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a wholesale client and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to retail clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. All rights reserved. Each credit rating agency sets a minimum bond rank to be classified as investment-grade: Standard & Poor's denotes bonds rated BBB- or higher as investment grade. By telephone from outside the United States: Modern Slavery and Human Trafficking Statement global and! Intensity approach to predict the multi-period defaults of Chinese-listed firms during the period 2001-2019 a. Has held multiple leadership roles at Moodys Moody 's Investors Service, Inc. and/or their and. Climb as macroeconomic and credit conditions worsen, global corporate default rate climb. 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